The CFTC is warning prediction markets to stop dressing up event contracts like sportsbook bets, as Kalshi battles a growing state-led crackdown. With New York, Utah and Washington pushing back hard, the fight is now over whether these products are financial markets or gambling in a suit.
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New York is suing Kalshi, claiming its event contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting, while Kalshi insists it’s a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange. The case is really a showdown over whether prediction markets are finance or gambling in a fintech costume.
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Bitcoin heads into the Fed’s September decision with traders split and key support in play. A dovish surprise could lift BTC toward $70,000, while a hawkish outcome may send it back toward $60,000 or even the mid-$50,000s.
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New York has sued Kalshi, saying its prediction-market contracts on sports, elections, and award shows are really illegal gambling under state law. Kalshi says federal commodities rules protect it, setting up a bigger fight over whether these platforms are markets or sportsbooks in disguise.
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New York has sued Kalshi, calling its prediction-market sports contracts unlicensed gambling and seeking to halt them in the state. Kalshi says federal oversight protects it, but with courts, states, and Congress all circling, the legal squeeze is tightening fast.
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Kalshi’s bid for emergency protection was denied, leaving the prediction-market platform exposed to New York enforcement while its appeal moves forward. The fight now centers on whether federal derivatives law can override state gambling rules for sports-event contracts.
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A House hearing is set to test whether sports prediction markets are legitimate financial contracts or just gambling with fancier paperwork, as Kalshi faces growing state-level pushback. The fight could redraw the line between CFTC oversight and state gaming law.
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Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing Spain as the favorite over Argentina in the World Cup final, with trading volume topping $4 billion on Polymarket alone. But the contracts aren’t identical, so those odds need context — and Messi’s Argentina is still very much alive.
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The CFTC has approved Kalshi’s BTCPERP, bringing a Bitcoin perpetual contract onto a U.S.-regulated exchange. It’s a big step for onshore crypto derivatives — but whether it matters will come down to liquidity, trading demand, and whether traders show up.
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CBOE is weighing Bitcoin and Ether perpetual futures as a CFTC approval for Kalshi opens the door for regulated U.S. venues to offer crypto-style perps. The payoff is clear: more liquidity, more access, and yes, more leverage-fueled risk.
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