Bitcoin fell below $72, 000 on Nov. 12, bringing $70, 000 into focus as the price slipped below several closely watched chart levels. Derivatives exposure and withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs added to the pressure. Positive weekly money flow offered some counterweight.
- BTC’s daily-chart snapshot showed $71, 421, down 3.50% for the session.
- Bitcoin was below its daily lower Bollinger Band and its 20-week and 50-week moving averages.
- $70, 000 was the nearest major downside reference; the 200-week average was near $68, 013.
- ETF outflows and rising futures open interest point to market pressures, but do not show what caused the decline or what happens next.
Bitcoin trades below key chart references
The TradingView Binance BTC/USDT chart recorded an intraday low of $71, 255 and a high of $74, 217. Trader Jesse Olson had flagged $71, 500 as vulnerable to further selling and said Bitcoin was breaking below his third target.
The daily-chart snapshot showed BTC below the lower Bollinger Band at $71, 978 and about 7.7% below the 20-day simple moving average, or SMA, at $77, 338. Bollinger Bands track volatility around a moving average. A price below the lower band can accompany a sharp decline, but it does not mean a rebound is due. Both the middle and lower bands were pointing down, and BTC had not made a sustained move back inside the band.
The daily Average Directional Index, or ADX, was 23.30 and turning upward. ADX measures trend strength, not direction. With prices falling, the rising reading was consistent with stronger downward momentum, but it does not identify a price target.
The weekly chart showed BTC near $71, 453, down 4.54% from the weekly open. It was below the 20-week SMA at $74, 220 and the 50-week SMA at $75, 157. Traders may watch these averages during a recovery, but they are chart references, not confirmed support or resistance. The daily and weekly chart snapshots showed slightly different BTC prices.
More than three days remained in the weekly candle at the time of the snapshot, so its closing position was still uncertain. The nearest major downside reference was $70, 000. The 200-week SMA stood around $68, 013, roughly 4.8% below the weekly-chart reading.
Leverage and ETF flows point to strain, not certainty
In its Nov. 11 update, Bitfinex Alpha reported that futures open interest rose 3.3% between Nov. 8 and Nov. 11 while BTC fell 2.6%. Open interest is the total value or number of outstanding futures contracts. The update does not specify which venues the figures cover or whether the change was measured in BTC or dollars. They should not be treated as a complete measure of market-wide leverage or traders’ directional bets. Positions may also hedge other exposures.
Leverage can magnify losses when prices move against a position. Exchanges may forcibly close positions that no longer meet margin requirements, a process called liquidation. Those closures can intensify a move, but rising open interest alone does not show that liquidations caused this decline.
CoinGlass’s liquidation heatmap showed prominent estimated concentrations above BTC’s price around $75, 600, $76, 300-$76, 700 and $77, 300-$77, 600. Below the market, visible concentrations were thinner and more scattered toward $70, 000. These levels mark estimated areas where leveraged positions could be vulnerable. They do not represent liquidations that have already happened.
Olson warned that “Long liquidation clusters could speed up the move.” That is a possible risk, but the cited heatmap offers little evidence of a large concentration of downside liquidation exposure. Its most prominent remaining bands were above the market. The map cannot show whether any cluster will be triggered or which way the price will move.
Bitfinex Alpha also reported $2.22 billion in withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin ETFs over eight sessions beginning Oct. 30. The update put the short-term holder cost basis, the estimated average acquisition price for a group of relatively recent holders, at $75, 717. It estimated that 1.6 million BTC acquired between $75, 000 and $80, 000 was being held at a loss.
Those estimates suggest many recent buyers were underwater at the time. They do not show that those holders sold or that they will sell if the price recovers. ETF withdrawals, open interest and potential selling by holders at a loss all point to relevant market pressures, but the figures do not show how much each contributed to Bitcoin’s decline. The broader ETF flow picture has also included spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Inflation figures do not settle the cause
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October release showed headline consumer prices rising 0.4% for the month and core prices rising 0.3%. Headline inflation includes overall consumer prices; core inflation excludes certain volatile categories.
Inflation can shape expectations for interest rates and appetite for risk, but these figures alone do not explain why Bitcoin fell. The available information does not quantify how much the release contributed to this market move. In a separate market episode, hot U.S. inflation coincided with ETF outflows and higher yields.
The 2023 comparison is only an analogy
Daan Crypto Trades compared the decline with Bitcoin’s first major pullback after its 2023 bear-market recovery, describing the current move as more orderly:
“This current correction has been much slower and orderly than the one we saw back then, ”
The comparison provides historical context, but it is no evidence that Bitcoin will follow the same path or reverse. Similar-looking corrections can end differently.
Weekly Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, offered one counterpoint to the weakening price structure. It remained positive at 0.10. CMF is an indicator used to assess buying and selling pressure. The weekly candle was still open, so the reading was provisional. And positive CMF had not prevented fresh weekly lows.
Key questions about Bitcoin’s drop
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How far had Bitcoin fallen?
The daily-chart snapshot showed BTC near $71, 421, down 3.50% for the session, after an intraday low of $71, 255.
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Which levels are traders watching?
$70, 000 is the nearest major downside reference, with the 200-week SMA around $68, 013 below it. Bitcoin was also below the 20-week and 50-week SMAs at $74, 220 and $75, 157.
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What do the derivatives and ETF figures show?
Bitfinex Alpha reported rising futures open interest during a price decline and $2.22 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF withdrawals over eight sessions. These figures point to market pressures, but do not prove what caused the drop or predict what comes next.
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What remains uncertain?
It is not yet clear whether BTC will hold $70, 000, recover the weekly moving averages or move toward the 200-week average. The weekly candle was still open, and neither the liquidation heatmap nor the 2023 comparison resolves that uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s price structure had weakened, and the reported ETF withdrawals and derivatives data added to the signs of strain. Positive weekly money flow offered a counterpoint, but had not stopped the decline. The next useful evidence will be whether BTC stabilizes around $70, 000 and where the unfinished weekly candle closes.
