CryptoQuant says Bitcoin is flashing a second early bull signal, but the market still looks like it missed the memo.
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According to CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, Bitcoin has now printed a second “early bull” signal. In CryptoQuant’s framework, that kind of reading can appear when a bear phase is cooling off and a new uptrend may be starting to form.
The company’s view is blunt:
“It is highly likely that Bitcoin is currently forming a bottom.”
That sounds encouraging, but it is not the same as saying the low is locked in and the cavalry is on the way. CryptoQuant’s first early bull signal was followed by more downside, which is a useful reminder that indicators can be helpful without being all-knowing. Markets love making fools out of anyone who confuses a signal with a prophecy.
What CryptoQuant is actually seeing
CryptoQuant says the second signal appeared during a phase it links to bottom formation and the start of an uptrend. The firm also pointed to two features of Bitcoin’s last rally. There was no overheated bull phase, and the extreme bear phase during the decline was relatively short.
That matters. A market that never really gets euphoric on the way up may not need as brutal a cleanup on the way down. No manic blow-off top, no long and violent unwind. Just a rough cycle with less excess than many traders would expect.
For readers unfamiliar with the term, an early bull signal is an on-chain or market-based indicator that suggests momentum may be shifting from bearish to constructive. In plain English: sellers may be getting tired, and buyers may be starting to absorb supply.
In CryptoQuant’s case, this is a model based on on-chain and market conditions, not a magic number pulled from a crystal ball. That distinction matters. A bottoming signal is a warning flare, not a guarantee.
For a deeper look at the research behind cycle timing, see Using on-chain data to predict Bitcoin cycles. It is a useful reminder that data can improve the odds, but it still cannot repeal market stupidity.
Glassnode sees a different problem: Bitcoin is being ignored
Glassnode added a broader macro lens on X, and it is not exactly a love letter to BTC.
“This weak sentiment is pushing money out of cash and into equities, AI, and commodities.”
Glassnode also said Bitcoin has been “significantly neglected” by that rotation.
The bigger picture is simple. Consumer confidence has been weak, while stocks have kept printing fresh highs. According to Glassnode, that mismatch is helping push money into assets that already have momentum. Bitcoin, for now, is not one of them.
That does not mean Bitcoin is broken. It means capital is being selective. Investors are not just avoiding risk; they are picking the risks that look most attractive right now. Apparently, the market’s current romance is with equities, AI, and commodities. Bitcoin is the person left waiting by the phone.
Glassnode’s broader market read lines up with the same theme in its Bitcoin Market Faces Apathy Amid Inflation and Policy coverage. The macro backdrop may be shaky, but that has not automatically turned into Bitcoin inflows.
Why the bottom thesis is plausible
The constructive case is that Bitcoin may be moving through a bottoming process rather than a full-blown breakdown. If seller exhaustion is building, downside pressure is easing, and the last cycle did not leave behind an overheated bubble, then a base can form faster than many expect.
Glassnode’s broader market work also supports that idea with more structure. In its Week Onchain material, the firm pointed to weak consumer confidence, fresh highs in the U.S. stock market, and a clear rotation out of cash and into assets. It also noted that Bitcoin has been left out of that flow.
That combination often creates the kind of market nobody enjoys, not panic, not euphoria, just a dull grind where price moves enough to annoy everyone and not enough to settle anything. Lovely stuff.
Still, a possible bottom is not the same thing as a confirmed one. On-chain signals can improve while price remains messy. Capital can stay parked elsewhere. And a promising setup can fail if broader risk appetite keeps favoring other trades.
The latest reading also fits into a larger trend that traders keep trying to map with dashboards and models, including Is Bitcoin Bottoming? The On-Chain Data Says Almost. Almost is doing a lot of work there, and it should. Almost is where most bottom calls live before reality slaps them.
What would confirm Bitcoin is actually turning
If Bitcoin is truly building a floor, the market should eventually show more than one encouraging data point. On-chain signals help, but price and flow need to back them up.
Based on the available market readings, the bullish case would improve if Bitcoin can reclaim stronger cost-basis levels, see a pickup in spot activity, and attract more capital instead of being sidelined by the current rotation into equities and AI.
Glassnode’s more detailed market structure work is useful here. The firm has said Bitcoin sits near the Median Realized Price at $63.0K, below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68.7K, while the aggregate Realized Price is near $52.8K. It also noted that Spot Exchange Volume has fallen to its lowest level since early 2019, and its Seller Exhaustion Constant is at a cycle low, among the weakest readings since 2013.
That does not scream collapse. It does suggest compression, weak participation, and seller fatigue, the sort of backdrop that can come before a turn, but can also drag on far longer than anyone wants.
For market context, compare that with past price stress like Bitcoin Plunges 4.41% to $102, 850: Critical Support at and the earlier setup in Bitcoin Hits $70K: Relief Rally or Bull Run? CryptoQuant’s. Bitcoin has a habit of making everyone argue over the same question: is this a real turn, or just another temporary bounce with good PR?
And if you want another example of how misleading surface-level excitement can be, check Bitcoin Price Hits $70, 900 in 2025, But Network Activity. Price alone is not the whole game, and anyone pretending otherwise is selling something, usually bags.
The useful takeaway
The clean read is this: CryptoQuant’s second early bull signal gives the Bitcoin bottoming thesis more weight, while Glassnode’s macro and flow data show why BTC still looks unloved relative to other risk assets.
That tension is the whole story. The on-chain setup may be getting better. The broader market is still giving Bitcoin the side-eye.
Sometimes that is exactly how major turns begin. Quietly, skeptically, and with just enough doubt to keep everyone uncomfortable.
Key questions and takeaways
-
What is CryptoQuant’s second early bull signal?
It is a reading from CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator that suggests Bitcoin may be moving out of a bearish phase and into a potential bottoming process. -
Does the signal prove Bitcoin has bottomed?
No. CryptoQuant’s signal points to a possible bottom, but it is still a probabilistic call, not a confirmed market low. -
Why is Glassnode talking about equities, AI, and commodities?
Glassnode says weak consumer confidence is pushing money out of cash and into other assets, and Bitcoin is being left out of that rotation for now. -
Why does “no overheated bull phase” matter?
It suggests Bitcoin may not have gone through the kind of euphoric excess that often needs a deeper reset, which can make a cleaner bottom more plausible. -
What would strengthen the bullish case from here?
A reclaim of stronger cost-basis levels, better spot volume, and clear signs that capital is rotating back into Bitcoin rather than staying in equities, AI, or commodities. -
What is the main risk to the bottom thesis?
That the signal fails, capital keeps flowing elsewhere, and Bitcoin remains stuck in a low-participation grind instead of starting a real uptrend.
