Bitcoin Near $73, 700 as ETF Outflows and Lingering Leverage Keep Pressure on Price
Bitcoin was still struggling to recover on November 12. Weak fund flows and lingering derivatives exposure weighed on sentiment, while momentum edged toward oversold territory. The market-data snapshot did not specify a year, so the date should not be treated as a fully dated price record.
- Crypto.news priced BTC at $73, 710, down about 8.27% over the week.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for four sessions in a row.
- Analysts estimate that less leverage has been cleared than in an earlier correction.
- Traders were watching $72, 000 below and $75, 565 above.
Inflation concerns and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment
Crypto.news market data put Bitcoin at $73, 710 at the time of reporting, little changed over 24 hours and down approximately 8.27% over the previous week. After falling below $80, 000, Bitcoin struggled to attract buyers. It climbed toward $74, 700 on Wednesday, then slipped toward $73, 300 overnight.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, topping economists’ 0.3% forecast, according to figures released November 10. Crypto.news reported that traders then priced in a greater chance of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December. The figures added to rate concerns, though they do not, on their own, explain why Bitcoin fell. Higher rates can make cash and bonds more appealing than riskier assets, but markets weigh many factors.
Demand through US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also weakened. The funds saw $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday, their fourth consecutive session of withdrawals. In an assessment dated November 11, Bitfinex said nearly $2.22 billion had left the funds over eight sessions starting October 30.
ETF outflows track activity in those investment products. They do not capture every investor or all global Bitcoin buying and selling. Still, sustained withdrawals offer little evidence of strong demand through US spot funds.
Has the leverage reset gone far enough?
Open interest tracks the outstanding positions in derivatives markets. When it falls, positions have been closed or liquidated. That figure alone does not show whether the traders were bullish or bearish.
CryptoQuant analyst BaykusCharts compared the current decline with earlier corrections. During a February sell-off, Bitcoin fell from $87, 000 to $67, 000 as Binance BTC-USDT open interest dropped from $9 billion to $5.5 billion. BaykusCharts estimated that about 20% of open interest, measured in Bitcoin terms, vanished within days. In a June liquidation wave, open interest fell from $8 billion to $6.1 billion, followed by Bitcoin’s yearly low near $59, 000. The comparison did not specify the years of those episodes.
In the current correction, Bitcoin fell from approximately $85, 000 to $74, 300 from mid-October. Binance open interest declined from $9.4 billion to $7.2 billion. BaykusCharts estimated that 12% of positions had closed when measured in BTC terms. That percentage uses a different measure from the dollar-denominated open-interest figures: the dollar value changes with Bitcoin’s price, while BTC-denominated open interest expresses positions in Bitcoin. The comparison points to a smaller reduction than in February. It does not mean another liquidation wave must follow.
Funding rates stayed positive, meaning traders in perpetual futures were still paying to maintain long positions as prices fell. That positioning can leave the market more vulnerable to further declines, but it does not prove that a large liquidation is imminent.
Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin-denominated open interest had returned to levels last seen between 2021 and 2023. High open interest can leave the market exposed to a sharp move, but it does not show which way prices will go. As Daan put it:
“Keep in mind, this says nothing about which direction that squeeze should be in, ”
A squeeze happens when traders are forced to close positions, potentially magnifying a price move. The key questions are which side is more crowded and how the price moves. Open interest alone cannot answer either one.
Miner reserves and exchange inflows add uncertainty
CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain reported miner reserves of approximately 1.19 million BTC, describing the estimate as the lowest since 2009. The figure depends on identifying wallets as belonging to miners. It is not a complete count of every Bitcoin held by every miner.
Arab Chain also reported that Bitcoin inflows to exchanges had reached a nine-month high, with Binance receiving approximately 2, 000 BTC in one day. The cited figures did not specify when that deposit took place. Coins sent to an exchange may be meant for sale, but a transfer does not confirm that a sale followed. Miner movements may also reflect liquidity needs or operating expenses.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell to zero on November 11. The firm’s research head, Julio Moreno, called it the most bearish possible reading:
“Our Bitcoin Bull Score is at 0, the most bearish it can be, ”
The index is one market indicator, not a definitive forecast of Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin’s technical picture remains weak
In Crypto.news’s technical snapshot, Bitcoin traded near $73, 758, below its 9-day moving average of $75, 565.86 and its 21-day moving average of $77, 633.08. A moving average smooths recent prices to show the short-term trend. The 9-day average was also below the 21-day average, a pattern that fits with near-term weakness.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, stood at 34.34. Traders often consider readings near 30 oversold. Bitcoin was nearing that level, which can come before a temporary bounce. It does not confirm a reversal, and weak markets can stay weak.
Crypto.news identified roughly $73, 500 as immediate support, with $72, 000 the next level to watch. A sustained fall below $72, 000 could put $70, 000 in view. These are levels traders watch on charts, not guaranteed floors. If Bitcoin recovers, it would need to move back above $75, 565, the 9-day moving average, before reaching the 21-day average near $77, 633.
Bitfinex put Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis at $75, 717. This estimate reflects the average acquisition price attributed to recent buyers. Some may consider selling near their entry price, which could add pressure around that level. It is a reference point, not a fixed resistance line.
Key questions about Bitcoin’s decline
-
Why has Bitcoin struggled to recover?
Reported factors include ETF outflows and hotter-than-expected October consumer prices. Analysts also cite persistent leverage and rising exchange inflows as possible sources of pressure. None of these alone establishes what happens next.
-
Has the current decline cleared as much leverage as February’s?
Not according to BaykusCharts. The analyst estimated that 12% of positions had closed in BTC terms during the current correction, compared with about 20% in February.
-
Do miner reserves or exchange inflows prove that Bitcoin was sold?
No. Wallet estimates and exchange deposits show holdings or transfers, not whether the coins were later sold.
-
Does an RSI near 30 mean Bitcoin will rebound?
No. An RSI of 34.34 is close to the commonly used oversold threshold, but it is not a reversal signal on its own.
-
Which price levels are traders watching?
Crypto.news flagged support near $73, 500 and $72, 000, with $70, 000 potentially in view below those levels. In its technical snapshot, the 9-day moving average near $75, 565 and the 21-day average near $77, 633 were recovery hurdles.
Bitcoin’s next move remains uncertain. The available indicators point to weak momentum and ongoing pressure, but they cannot show whether support will hold. ETF demand, derivatives positioning and confirmed selling activity will offer more useful evidence than any single indicator or chart level.
