Bitcoin Price Slips Near $73K: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $77, 500?
Bitcoin traded near $74, 000 in Glassnode’s Nov. 11, 2026, market update, below the average price many recent buyers paid. A recovery toward $77, 500 could put them in a better position, but it could also give some holders a chance to sell near breakeven.
- $75, 600: Glassnode’s estimated cost basis for short-term holders.
- $77, 500: Its True Market Mean, an on-chain reference level.
- $65, 000: A downside scenario raised by analyst Tranquility Crypto, not a confirmed target.
- Demand signals: ETF outflows and shrinking stablecoin supply add context, but don’t establish what caused Bitcoin’s decline.
Recent Bitcoin buyers are under pressure
Bitcoin fell from near $80, 000 into the $73, 000 to $76, 000 range during the week through Nov. 11. In its Week 45, 2026 report, Glassnode put the short-term holder cost basis at $75, 600. The measure estimates the average price paid for coins held for fewer than 155 days.
Glassnode estimated that about 35% of short-term holder supply remained in profit. That figure represents the share of this group’s coins estimated to be worth more than their purchase price. It doesn’t predict whether holders will sell or keep holding.
Glassnode also puts its True Market Mean at $77, 500. This is an on-chain reference level, not a guaranteed resistance point. According to the firm, reclaiming it would bring roughly half of short-term holder supply back into profit. Around two-thirds of that supply is currently above Bitcoin’s price, with purchase prices reaching as high as $83, 600.
Some holders may sell if a rally brings the price back to what they paid. That could add selling pressure, but it’s only one possible outcome. Buyers might absorb those sales, or demand might prove too weak.
A recovery has hurdles; a breakdown carries risk
Using $73, 500 as a reference price, Bitcoin would need to rise about 2.9% to reach $75, 600 and roughly 5.4% to reach $77, 500. Those levels show where the market stands relative to recent buyers’ cost bases. They don’t guarantee a reversal.
Glassnode’s broader reading is less bearish than a short-term breakdown alone might suggest. The firm said Bitcoin’s structure, established from August, remained intact and that the price was still above the June low of $58, 500. It also identified a dense band of short-term-holder purchase prices between $62, 000 and $66, 000. That’s a distribution of cost bases, not a liquidation zone or proof the range will act as support.
Tranquility Crypto offered a more bearish technical view in an X post on Nov. 11. The pseudonymous analyst said Bitcoin had traded within a descending channel since September and slipped below its lower trendline. They described an “expected move coming towards $65K” and said they wanted Bitcoin to reclaim the broken structure before feeling comfortable calling a bottom.
From $73, 500, a move to $65, 000 would be a decline of about 11.6%. That’s Tranquility Crypto’s scenario, not a target validated by Glassnode or established as market consensus. Chart patterns can help traders define risk. They can’t make the market follow a script.
ETF outflows and stablecoin supply add context
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.578 billion in net outflows from Nov. 2 through Nov. 10, based on figures from Farside Investors. That total includes about $1.282 billion in outflows from Nov. 2 through Nov. 6, followed by another $201 million on Nov. 9 and $95 million on Nov. 10.
Those outflows across the group didn’t mean every fund lost money. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded roughly $1.210 billion in net outflows from Nov. 2 through Nov. 6, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded a $93.1 million net inflow over the same sessions. On Nov. 10, IBIT lost $78.2 million and FBTC lost $36.8 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT took in $20 million.
Glassnode describes the broader outflow stretch as relatively shallow compared with previous episodes. The firm also says that, in past episodes, ETF inflows returned only after Bitcoin had already made its low. Renewed inflows could help confirm a bottom in hindsight, but they’re not a dependable early warning.
Stablecoin supply is another, imperfect gauge of market conditions. Glassnode reported a $14.2 billion contraction over the 30 days through Nov. 9, the fastest contraction since June 2022. The firm interprets the decline as holders redeeming stablecoins and removing cash from the market. The figure alone doesn’t explain why supply fell or how much it contributed to Bitcoin’s price move.
Bitcoin diverged from stocks after the sell-off
Glassnode said the sell-off that began Nov. 5 hit both stocks and Bitcoin. After Nov. 9, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recovered above their election-day closes, while Bitcoin fell again after the Nov. 10 consumer-price release. Glassnode put Bitcoin about 5% below its own election-day close of $77, 800.
The timing doesn’t prove the inflation report caused Bitcoin’s decline. It does show that the two markets, after initially moving lower together, went separate ways. Glassnode said a move back above $77, 800 would bring Bitcoin back in step with equities. That’s a useful marker, not proof the markets will keep moving together.
Glassnode also reported that the 30-day Coinbase Premium stayed negative as Bitcoin fell from its September high, reaching its deepest discount since February. The indicator compares Coinbase prices with prices elsewhere. Glassnode sees a sustained positive premium as evidence of renewed U.S. buying interest, though it doesn’t capture all demand from U.S. investors.
Key questions about Bitcoin’s price
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Which levels matter most for a recovery?
Glassnode puts the short-term holder cost basis at $75, 600 and its True Market Mean at $77, 500. Both are on-chain reference points based on holder data, not guaranteed support or resistance.
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Why could a rally still meet selling?
Many short-term holders bought coins above the current price. Some may sell if Bitcoin returns to their purchase levels, but their behavior and the market’s ability to absorb any sales are uncertain.
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Is $65, 000 a reliable price target?
No. Tranquility Crypto cited it as a possible move after a claimed descending-channel breakdown. It remains one analyst’s scenario, not a confirmed destination.
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Do ETF outflows show that investors have abandoned Bitcoin?
No. The figures show net withdrawals through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the measured period, but don’t reveal every investor’s reasons or predict the next price move. Glassnode says the outflow stretch was relatively shallow compared with earlier episodes.
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What signals would strengthen the case for a recovery?
A move back above $75, 600 and then $77, 500, along with a sustained positive Coinbase Premium, would improve the picture based on Glassnode’s measures. These are signals to watch, not proof on their own that a lasting rally has begun.
Bitcoin remains below the cost basis of many recent buyers, while Glassnode’s broader structural assessment still places it above the June low. The next useful evidence will be whether the price recovers key on-chain reference levels and demand indicators improve, not whether someone repeats a chart target loudly enough.
