Bitcoin Rebounds Above $63, 000, But the Cycle Fight Is Still Wide Open
Bitcoin snapped back above $63, 000 after briefly losing the $60, 000 level, but that kind of rebound settles exactly nothing. The selloff was ugly. The bounce was real. And the bigger argument is still unresolved: was this a mid-cycle correction and bear trap, or the start of a deeper break that still has another leg down ahead?
- BTC briefly dipped below $60, 000 before rebounding above $63, 000
- Liquidations, oversold signals, and short covering helped fuel the bounce
- Analysts remain split on whether the cycle bottom is already in
That split matters. If the low is already in, Bitcoin may be building a new advance. If not, this is just the sort of violent relief rally crypto loves to throw at traders before the market gets nasty again.
A brutal washout, then a fast recovery
According to TradingView data cited by Invezz, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60, 000 on June 6 before recovering back above $63, 000 by June 8. The move came after a sharp selloff that took BTC down nearly $19, 000 in 10 days, with a weekly decline of about 14.6%.
The damage was not just on the spot chart. Invezz reported that more than $155 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within an hour, while total liquidations topped $1.7 billion over 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 8, which is about as cheerful as a tax audit in a thunderstorm.
That sort of flush can mark a bottom. It can also be the market doing what crypto does best: punishing leverage, shaking out weak hands, and making everyone argue about “signals” after the fact.
The rebound is meaningful, but it is not the same thing as a clean trend reversal. Bitcoin recovered from an oversold condition. It has not yet proved that the broader downtrend is done.
The technical picture: better, but not confirmed
The daily chart still looks mixed. Invezz said Bitcoin remains below all major trend indicators, which suggests the market is healing without yet reclaiming control.
Momentum has improved, but only modestly. Invezz reported the daily RSI rose from about 15.5 to around 25.8. That is a recovery from extreme weakness, but not a bullish victory lap. The MACD also remained bearish, even if the histogram was contracting, which usually means downside momentum is easing rather than fully broken.
In plain English: the market is less wrecked than it was, but it is not exactly roaring back with conviction.
That is why traders are still watching for confirmation. A real trend shift usually needs more than one sharp bounce. It needs sustained higher highs, higher lows, and a reclaim of key moving averages. Until then, calling this a fresh bull leg is premature.
CryptoCon’s warning: sentiment can flip too fast
One side of the debate comes from CryptoCon, whose chart Bitcoin Calendar of the Masses tracks how crowd psychology tends to swing wildly around major market turns. The basic idea is simple: when consensus gets too confident, the market often enjoys making a fool of consensus.
The narrative labels on the chart tell the story. Near the 2022 bottom, the crowd was calling for recession and “10-12k next.” During a 2023 pullback, the refrain became “Altcoins Are Dead, Recession Coming.” Around one 2024 consolidation, the mood turned to “ETFs are Here, No More Corrections.” Near late-2024 highs, it shifted again to “Strategic Reserve Coming, Supercycle Inbound.” Now the latest label is “Bull Market is Back.”
That is exactly the problem with getting too comfortable in crypto: everyone always sounds smart right before the market decides to be rude.
CryptoCon’s broader view still leaves room for a final cycle bottom later this year or potentially toward the end of 2026. In that thesis, the latest rebound could be just a strong bounce inside a larger cycle structure, not the final low.
The chart also points to a future green box in the $40, 000 to $50, 000 region. That should not be treated as a precise prediction. It is better understood as a downside zone inside a bearish scenario. At current prices around $63, 000, a move to $50, 000 would be a drop of roughly 21%, while $40, 000 would mean losing about 37% from here.
That would not be a minor wobble. That would be a proper bruising.
The bullish counterpoint: maybe this was a bear trap
The more aggressive bullish reading comes from Bobby, whose monthly chart stretches back to 2017 and places Bitcoin inside a long-term rising channel. In that view, the recent decline was not a finished bear market at all. It was a mid-cycle correction inside a broader uptrend.
That is the kind of setup traders call a bear trap: price breaks down hard enough to convince people the market is finished, then snaps back and punishes the shorts. In volatile assets like Bitcoin, those traps can be vicious.
Bobby’s chart points to several things. The recent low formed around a major rising moving average on the monthly timeframe. An RSI-like momentum panel bounced from the lower half of its range. A faster oscillator curled up from deeply compressed levels. The MACD-style indicator is still negative, but the turn in momentum is at least improving.
That does not prove the bullish case. But it does make the case credible. Markets do not need everyone to agree before they move. They usually prefer to confuse both sides first.
Bobby described the decline as “one of the largest and most complex bear traps in crypto history.” That is a big statement, and crypto is never short on dramatic language. Still, the underlying point is fair: a violent drop inside a larger structure can look like the end of the trend right up until price rips higher and leaves the bears stranded.
For a broader look at how traders keep trying to map Bitcoin’s longer rhythm, it is worth revisiting why four-year Bitcoin and crypto cycles occur in the first place.
Why the debate is still open
The clean answer is that Bitcoin has recovered, but it has not yet proven anything beyond that. A rebound from roughly $60, 000 to above $63, 000 is solid, but it is not enough to declare the cycle bottom fully confirmed.
That is the crux of the fight between the two interpretations. CryptoCon’s view says the crowd may be getting too excited too early and that another deeper low is still possible. Bobby’s view says the market already flushed out excessive pessimism and is now moving back inside a larger bullish framework.
Both readings can sound convincing because both are built on familiar crypto behavior. Sentiment gets extreme. Leverage gets washed out. Price snaps back. Then traders immediately start arguing over whether the pain is over or just paused.
The broader macro backdrop also still matters. The Invezz report linked the selloff to a stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market and the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve may stay tighter for longer. That is important because Bitcoin may be digital scarcity in the long run, but in the short run it still trades like a risk asset when liquidity tightens. Freedom money, yes. Immune to macro, absolutely not.
At the same time, it helps to remember that Bitcoin remains the world's most traded cryptocurrency, which means every macro twitch, leverage flush, and sentiment swing gets amplified fast. That’s the price of being the market’s loudest asset. It also helps explain why some outsiders still lazily toss Bitcoin into the old cryptocurrency bubble basket whenever volatility spikes, as if a temporary bloodbath somehow proves the whole network thesis is dead. It doesn’t.
What would settle this?
The next confirmation points are straightforward. Bulls want to see Bitcoin keep reclaiming trend levels, form higher lows, and hold the rebound instead of rolling back over. Bears want to see the move fail, momentum fade, and price slip back toward the $60, 000 area or lower.
If the market can reclaim major moving averages and keep building on this rebound, the bear-trap case gets stronger. If it stalls out and starts losing support again, the “mid-cycle correction” thesis starts looking more like wishful thinking.
For now, the honest read is simple: the bounce is real, the sentiment flip is fast, and the cycle debate is not over. Bitcoin has a way of making certainty look stupid, and right now neither camp has fully won the argument.
That is also why headline-driven calls should be taken with a shovel of salt. One day it is Bitcoin Price Tops $80K, But Analysts Warn This Could Be a breakout and the next it’s panic, doom, and people pretending they never drew a straight line on a chart in their lives. Same circus, different tent.
And if you want a reminder that this market still loves violent fakeouts, look at cases like Capo Predicts Bitcoin Bounce and Altcoin Surge: Bear Trap, where bearish conviction can flip into bullish relief almost overnight. The market does not care about anyone’s ego, only positioning.
It also doesn’t care much for neatly packaged “100x by Tuesday” fantasy. Posts like Bitcoin Hits $97K in 2025: Bull Run or Bear Trap Amid Weak are useful precisely because they force a harder question: is the move actually backed by demand, or is it just recycled hopium with a nice thumbnail?
And if you need a fresh reminder that crypto markets can vaporize confidence in minutes, just ask the holders caught in the American Bitcoin Stock Crashes 50% in Minutes Amid Trump mess. When leverage and narrative collide, the result is usually less “innovation” and more “whoops.”
Key takeaways and questions
-
Is Bitcoin out of the woods now?
Not yet. The rebound is strong, but the daily trend has not fully flipped bullish and major confirmation levels still need to be reclaimed. -
Was $60, 000 the cycle bottom?
It might have been, but that is not proven. One camp sees it as the low of a mid-cycle correction; the other still leaves room for a deeper drop later. -
What is a bear trap?
It is a false breakdown that scares traders into expecting more downside, only for price to reverse higher and squeeze bearish positions. -
Why do sentiment shifts matter so much?
Because extreme fear and extreme greed often show up near turning points. When everyone piles into the same narrative, crypto has a habit of humiliating them. -
Could Bitcoin still fall to $40, 000 to $50, 000?
Yes, that remains part of one bearish scenario tied to CryptoCon’s broader thesis. It is a scenario, not a forecast set in stone.
Bitcoin’s rebound above $63, 000 is encouraging, but it is still just one rebound. The market has stopped falling for the moment. It has not yet proved the next leg is up. For now, the smartest posture is caution without panic, optimism without moonboy nonsense, and a healthy suspicion of anyone pretending this market hands out certainty.
Further reading
A related market recap worth a look:
