Bitcoin tops $65K as traders wait for Wednesday’s CPI print
Bitcoin briefly moved above $65, 000 on Aug. 10, but the real test is still ahead. Softer U.S. labor data, strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and cooler expectations for Fed tightening helped the bounce. Wednesday’s inflation report could just as easily send BTC back into its familiar chop zone.
- BTC hit an intraday high of $65, 363 before slipping back below $65, 000.
- Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $854 million, according to SoSoValue.
- BlackRock’s IBIT drew $694 million of that total.
- $65, 800 remains the key resistance traders are watching.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $64, 955, up 0.3% over 24 hours and 3.4% over seven days. That’s a decent rebound from around $62, 500 at the start of the previous week, but it still leaves BTC stuck beneath a level it has repeatedly struggled to hold.
The setup is familiar. Bitcoin is reacting to macro data, not some mystical crypto prophecy cooked up by a chart goblin on X. Weak payrolls helped. ETF demand helped. Now the market wants to know whether inflation will back the move or smack it right back down.
Why the jobs report gave Bitcoin a lift
The latest U.S. labor data was soft enough to move markets. The economy lost 23, 000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, while May payroll growth was revised down by 66, 000 and June by 37, 000. Combined, those revisions removed 103, 000 jobs from the prior estimates.
That matters because the Federal Reserve watches labor conditions closely when deciding whether policy is too tight. Weaker job growth can reduce pressure for further rate hikes, and that’s usually a tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. The Employment Status of the Civilian Population by Race, Sex report showed how quickly the labor picture can shift, and traders noticed.
The market response showed up in rate expectations. Futures pricing now puts the probability of a September Fed rate increase near 44%, down from 67% one week earlier, according to the market snapshot cited in the reporting. That is a sharp shift in a short time, and it shows how fast traders are adjusting to the latest data.
The Fed already held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, but the meeting was not exactly a love letter to easy money. Three voting officials preferred a 25 basis point increase. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points equals 0.25%.
That dissent is a reminder that the central bank is not suddenly relaxed. The labor market may be cooling, but inflation still gets the final say. The Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement was hardly a dovish love note, and the market is still reading every line like it’s a hostage letter.
ETF inflows are still supporting the bid
Bitcoin’s move also had a real tailwind from spot ETF demand. SoSoValue reported $854 million in weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone taking in $694 million last week.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold actual BTC, so inflows reflect direct buying demand rather than paper exposure alone. That makes them one of the clearest windows into institutional interest in Bitcoin right now. For the curious, the old Reddit explainer Can Someone Explain How Bitcoin ETFs Work? is still a decent primer on the basic mechanics.
That said, inflows are not a magic on-switch. They can be strong while price still struggles. Bitcoin has repeatedly run into resistance in the $65, 000 to $66, 000 area, which suggests sellers are still active there. In other words, buyers are present, but so are traders eager to take profit into strength. Classic crypto, really. Reuters has also tracked how Bitcoin set for biggest monthly jump since 2020 amid ETF demand helped drive earlier bursts higher, even if those moves were never a one-way street.
The CPI report is the next boss fight
The next major macro event lands at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 12, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July CPI data. CPI, or the Consumer Price Index, is one of the main inflation gauges watched by the Federal Reserve and markets. The official CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics page is where the numbers hit first, usually before traders have even finished their coffee.
Reuters surveyed economists who expect headline inflation to ease to 3.4% annually and core inflation to slow to 2.5%. Headline inflation includes food and energy, while core inflation strips them out to give a cleaner read on underlying price pressure.
For comparison, June consumer prices fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% year over year. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% annually.
If Wednesday’s print comes in softer than expected, it would strengthen the case for a less aggressive Fed path. That is not the same as a guaranteed policy pivot. Markets love to overshoot on one number and then act surprised when reality shows up. But it would improve Bitcoin’s odds of holding the recent breakout attempt.
If inflation runs hot, the current bounce could lose steam fast. Markets do not need much encouragement to dump optimism when the data turns against them.
Energy prices add another wrinkle. Brent crude rose 1% to $84.40 on Monday, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.66%. Higher oil and stubbornly elevated yields are not the friendliest backdrop for a clean risk rally.
What the chart says
The technical picture is constructive, but it is not screaming breakout just yet. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index stood at 55.07, with its moving average at 50.44. That points to improving momentum without the market being overheated.
The Awesome Oscillator was positive at about 664.19, which also suggests the trend has improved. But momentum indicators are not fortune tellers. They can support a bullish case, and then get shredded by one ugly macro print.
Traders are still focused on $65, 800 as the critical barrier. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called that level the “critical level” and said BTC was “ready for a breakout to at least $73, 700.”
Michaël van de Poppe called $65, 800 the “critical level” and said BTC was “ready for a breakout to at least $73, 700.”
He also pointed to bullish divergence in longer-term RSI and MACD readings. For readers who do not live inside chart indicators, bullish divergence is when price weakens while an indicator improves. Traders often read that as a sign that selling pressure is fading. Often, not always. Crypto charting is useful, but it is still part science, part ritual, part expensive optimism.
What this move really says
Bitcoin’s move above $65, 000 shows that buyers are still willing to step in when macro data softens and ETF demand remains strong. It does not prove the market is out of the woods.
The repeated rejection around $65, 000 to $66, 000 is the bigger clue. That kind of behavior usually means there is real supply sitting overhead. If BTC can turn $65, 800 into support, the next leg higher starts to look more credible. If not, this can easily become another failed push in a range that has already worn out a lot of patience.
Bitcoin’s broader trend is still recovering from a much lower base, but the market has not earned a victory lap. It needs softer inflation, steadier ETF demand, and a cleaner break above resistance. Until then, the Fed is still the shadow sitting in the corner of the room. Past coverage like Bitcoin Faces Fed, Iran Talks and Crypto Bill as ETF inflows stay strong shows just how much this market keeps orbiting macro headlines instead of some pure digital gold fairy tale. More on that bullish-but-not-blind view can be found in Inflation Rises to 2.7%: Could Bitcoin Shine Again as well as Bitcoin Undervalued as Spot ETFs, Fed Transition and Macro.
Key questions and takeaways
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Why did Bitcoin move above $65, 000?
Weak U.S. payroll data, solid ETF inflows, and a sharp drop in the market’s expectation for another near-term Fed rate increase helped fuel the move. The headline Bitcoin price tops $65K ahead of key U.S. CPI report captured that same macro-driven push, with a cleaner breakdown also available in Bitcoin Price Tops $65K Ahead of Key U.S. CPI Report. -
What is the next major catalyst?
Wednesday’s CPI report is the big one. Softer inflation would help Bitcoin’s case, while hotter inflation could send it back toward its recent range. -
Do Bitcoin ETF inflows matter?
Yes. Spot ETF inflows show real demand for Bitcoin exposure, especially from larger investors. But inflows can fade, and they do not guarantee a breakout. -
What price level matters most right now?
$65, 800 is the level traders are watching most closely. A clean move above it could open the door toward higher levels, while rejection there would reinforce the current range. -
Is the Fed done with hikes?
Not officially. Markets have pulled back expectations for a September hike, but the Fed is still data-dependent and inflation remains the deciding factor.
