Could HBAR Reach $3? The Bull Case Meets a $133 Billion Valuation
Analyst Bmendo says Hedera’s HBAR could reach $3 in a strong crypto market. At the cited price of $0.067, that would be a roughly 44.8-fold increase. It would also imply a valuation far beyond what current adoption evidence supports.
- $3 would imply about $132.9 billion in circulating market value.
- A Lloyds-led tokenized-collateral pilot is a real use case, but not proof of broad adoption.
- Hedera reports high transaction capacity, though capacity alone does not show that HBAR is in demand.
- Bmendo gives price levels without a timeframe or chart methodology.
The math behind the $3 target
The prediction is based on an HBAR price near $0.067, about 44.3 billion tokens in circulation and a maximum supply of 50 billion. Those figures put circulating market capitalization at about $2.97 billion. At $3, the same circulating supply would imply a market cap of roughly $132.9 billion.
At the full maximum supply of 50 billion tokens, a $3 price would imply a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $150 billion. FDV estimates a token’s value using its maximum supply, rather than only the tokens currently in circulation.
These calculations use the cited figures, which have not been independently verified. Circulating supply can also vary depending on the definition and date used. Allocated, released and circulating tokens are not necessarily the same thing.
A move from $0.067 to $3 would be about a 44.8-fold price increase, or roughly 4, 378%. Market capitalization is the price multiplied by the supply. It does not measure how much cash investors have put into an asset. An implied market cap of $132.9 billion does not mean that amount of new money must flow into HBAR.
Bmendo names $0.09, $0.12 as an initial recovery zone, with the mid-$0.30s as a possible later stage. These are the analyst’s estimates, not established support levels. There is no stated timeframe, chart or method explaining how the levels were chosen.
What supports the optimistic case?
A concrete example is a tokenized-collateral pilot involving Lloyds Banking Group, Aberdeen and Archax. Lloyds called it a UK-first initiative. Tokenized units of an Aberdeen money-market fund and UK government bonds were used as collateral for foreign-exchange trades between Aberdeen and Lloyds. Archax issued, transferred and held the tokens on Hedera.
Lloyds said the successful pilot could lay the groundwork for scaling tokenized collateral. It shows that regulated institutions tested the process on Hedera. It does not show that the pilot created lasting demand for HBAR. Lloyds did not quantify any savings, and the announcement offers no evidence of sustained demand for the token.
Lloyds described Hedera as a public permissioned blockchain. In simple terms, the network is public, but permissions can govern participation in parts of the system. The pilot was not a permissionless DeFi transaction.
Network capacity is another part of Bmendo’s case. In its technical materials, Hedera describes a 10, 000 transactions-per-second (TPS) throttle for cryptocurrency transactions and reports a brief production burst of 16, 000 TPS. The throttle is a governed operating limit, not a universal technical ceiling. Hedera also says practical throughput depends on the type of transaction and the work required to update network state.
Those figures come from Hedera, not an independent audit. A short-lived peak does not show sustained throughput, and capacity does not equal economically significant use. For HBAR holders, the central question is whether network activity creates lasting demand for the token. The cited figures do not quantify that connection.
What the forecast does not establish
Bmendo’s broader argument is that enterprise applications and a market more willing to take risks could lift Hedera’s valuation. That is a plausible scenario. But the post gives no probability or clear timeframe, and it does not show that the cited activity could support a $3 price.
The prediction also refers to other Hedera use cases and gains by layer-1 networks in previous cycles. Layer-1 networks are blockchains that serve as foundational networks. Without reliable sources for those examples, or a defined group of assets and comparison period for the claimed 10-50x gains, they are not a sound benchmark for HBAR.
There is also a timing issue. The post is reported as dated November 8, 2026, but the details provided do not establish when it was originally published or the date of the surrounding publication. The cited $0.067 price has no timestamp either. Treat the price comparison and technical levels as an analyst’s snapshot, not a current market update.
Key questions about HBAR’s $3 prediction
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What would HBAR at $3 imply?
With the cited circulating supply of 44.3 billion, it would imply about $132.9 billion in circulating market capitalization. Using the maximum supply of 50 billion, the implied FDV would be $150 billion.
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What is the clearest evidence of enterprise use?
Lloyds reported a UK-first pilot that used tokenized Aberdeen fund units and UK government bonds as collateral for FX trades. It demonstrates a tested use case, not broad adoption or proven growth in HBAR demand.
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What would strengthen the bullish case?
Investors would need dated, verifiable evidence of sustained network use and a clearer link between that activity and lasting demand for HBAR. A favorable market cycle or high throughput alone would not prove the case.
Hedera reports substantial transaction capacity, and the Lloyds pilot gives a specific example of institutions testing tokenized assets on the network. Those are reasons to keep an eye on the project, but they do not prove that HBAR is headed for $3. The forecast remains speculative until stronger, time-stamped evidence supports the usage case, token demand and valuation assumptions.
