Kaspa has been smashed in this drawdown, but one analyst who called the top before now says the battered token may be setting up for a rebound. Traders love that kind of flip. Late buyers, not so much, especially if the “bottom” turns out to be a trap.
- KAS is down about 91.7% from its peak near $0.35
- Rafaela Rigo, who warned on profits in June 2024, now says it’s time to buy back
- The key level to watch is $0.0316
- The big upside call: a move from $0.0289 to roughly $0.35 would be close to 12x
Kaspa (KAS) is trading around $0.0289, after falling from roughly $0.35 at its all-time high. That’s a drop of about 91.7%. Not a normal correction. A full-on slaughter.
For newcomers, Kaspa is a proof-of-work cryptocurrency built around fast block production and a simple pitch: keep the network lean, scalable, and decentralized without the circus. It has built a loyal following, but like most crypto assets, it has also learned the hard way that gravity is very real when hype fades.
If you want the broader context behind the latest chatter, [Kaspa (KAS) Price Stagnant on August 17: Breakout or](https://adbytes.media/blog/kaspa-kas-price-stagnant-on-august-17-breakout-or-breakdown-ahead) shows how the market has been stuck in that awkward “maybe it’s basing, maybe it’s dying” phase.
Now the same analyst who previously urged investors to take profits near the top is back with a bullish reversal call. Rafaela Rigo said on X that she had issued an exit warning in June 2024 and now sees a new buying opportunity.
“TIME TO BUY!!!”
“Exit warning was given in June 2024 for max realized gains”
“Now it’s time to buy back, and I see a 12x potential from its lower bear market price!”
That last line needs a reality check before anyone starts slapping rocket emojis on the chart. A move from $0.0289 back to the prior peak near $0.35 would indeed be close to 12x, but that is a long way from a forecast and even farther from a guarantee. In crypto, a bold target is easy to type and hard to earn.
For a sharper look at the signal-versus-noise problem around this setup, [Time to Buy Kaspa? Analyst Who Called the Exit Now Sees a](https://captainaltcoin.com/?p=938565) captures the market’s usual allergy to nuance when a trader flips from doom to euphoria.
Rigo’s bullish case is built on the idea that Kaspa may be forming a long-term bottom after its brutal decline. The price has been stabilizing in the $0.028 to $0.029 range, and the latest four-week candle is up about 3.27%. That’s not a breakout. It’s barely a flicker. But after a long crash, even a flicker can get traders leaning forward.
The source puts it plainly: “It’s not a breakout yet. But it’s the first real sign of strength we’ve seen in a long time.”
That’s fair, as far as it goes. It is also the kind of sentence that can make people confuse a pause in selling with an actual trend change.
Why this reversal call matters
Rigo’s opinion gets attention because she reportedly made the right call before. According to the X post cited in the source, she warned investors to lock in profits in June 2024, near the cycle top. If that timing is accurate, it gives her current view more weight than your average social-media moonshot post from someone with a laser-eyed profile picture and zero discipline.
Still, past accuracy does not grant permanent market clairvoyance. One good call does not mean the next one gets a free pass. Crypto has a way of humiliating people who mistake one sharp observation for a crystal ball.
The broader thesis here is simple: after a massive drawdown, Kaspa may have finally reached a zone where the downside feels more limited and the upside, if a recovery takes hold, could be large. That is what traders mean by a risk-reward setup. The idea is not that the asset is safe. It’s that the potential gain may outweigh the remaining risk if the bounce actually develops into a trend.
The levels traders are watching
The first line in the sand is $0.0316. That’s the next level Kaspa needs to break and then hold as support. Support is a price zone where buyers are expected to step in and slow or stop a decline.
If KAS can clear that area, the next major test is $0.05. After that come $0.10, $0.15, and $0.20, with the broader recovery zone sitting around $0.30 to $0.35.
That matters because the market usually does not recover in a straight line. A token that has been crushed this hard has to prove itself again and again as it climbs. Sellers from the previous cycle tend to show up on the way up, especially if they are just trying to get out at breakeven and stop staring at a red screen.
Until Kaspa reclaims those levels, the bullish case remains a thesis, not a confirmed reversal.
There’s also a bigger structural angle worth watching, especially if the project’s roadmap keeps stretching into bold territory. [Kaspa’s 2026 Hardfork: Proof-of-Work Revolution or Risky](https://adbytes.media/blog/kaspas-2026-hardfork-proof-of-work-revolution-or-risky-overhype) digs into whether the coming upgrades are real progress or just another round of crypto marketing with extra confetti.
What the market cap claim actually means
Rigo also said that a move to $0.30 would take Kaspa’s market cap from $757 million to $27 billion. That figure is based on the token’s supply assumptions at the time of the post, and market-cap math only works if the supply basis is understood clearly.
Market capitalization is the total value of the coins in circulation multiplied by the price. It is useful shorthand, but it is also one of the easiest numbers in crypto to weaponize in hype mode. A giant market-cap projection can look impressive on a chart and still say very little about whether the market will ever assign that value.
In plain English: yes, the arithmetic can point to a large number. No, that does not mean the market is obligated to hand it over.
That same reality has been part of the debate around exchange access too, because liquidity and listings matter far more than cheerleading from the peanut gallery. CZ Reveals Why Kaspa (KAS) Struggles for Binance Listing is a useful reminder that even strong communities can hit walls when fees, tech, and exchange politics get in the way.
The bullish case
The strongest argument for Kaspa is that extreme drawdowns can create strong rebounds if the project still has enough community support, liquidity, and narrative strength to survive the washout.
That’s the part many traders understand and many others ignore: brutal selloffs often flush out weak hands, shake out leverage, and leave behind an asset that looks dead just before it becomes interesting again.
Kaspa’s stabilization in the $0.028 to $0.029 zone could be read as early accumulation, meaning buyers may be slowly building positions at depressed prices. But that interpretation is still speculative. A sideways chop after a crash can be a base, or it can just be the market catching its breath before another leg down.
If KAS can hold $0.0316 and then reclaim $0.05, the market would have a stronger case that momentum is shifting. Until then, bulls are mostly running on hope, a notoriously unstable fuel source.
The bearish case
The skeptical view is just as straightforward: Kaspa has already been hit hard, and there is no guarantee the damage is over. A 90%+ drawdown can create opportunity, but it can also signal that sentiment has been broken for a reason.
There is also the broader market backdrop to consider. Altcoins often struggle when liquidity rotates back toward Bitcoin or when risk appetite fades across the board. Without fresh catalysts, even good projects can sit in the gutter far longer than their holders would like.
And that is the problem with aggressive upside calls. A forecast like “12x potential” sounds exciting, but it can also blur the line between analysis and wishful thinking. Plenty of coins have looked “obviously cheap” right before they spent months doing absolutely nothing, or worse.
So yes, the setup is interesting. No, that does not make it a good blind buy.
Key questions and takeaways
-
Is Kaspa actually bottoming?
Maybe, but not confirmed. The price has stabilized in the $0.028 to $0.029 range, but a real reversal needs stronger follow-through above $0.0316 and then $0.05. -
Why does Rafaela Rigo’s view matter?
Because she reportedly warned investors to take profits in June 2024 near the top. If that call was accurate, her new bullish turn deserves attention, but not blind faith. -
Is the 12x upside claim realistic?
It is mathematically possible if KAS eventually revisits the prior peak near $0.35 from around $0.0289. That said, possible is not the same thing as likely. -
What is the most important price level right now?
$0.0316 is the line to watch. If Kaspa can break and hold above it, the next test is $0.05. -
What would invalidate the bullish case?
A failure to reclaim resistance and a return to fresh lows would suggest the recent stabilization was just another dead-cat bounce, not the start of a recovery.
Kaspa sits in a classic crypto gray zone: damaged enough to scare off the weak, cheap enough to tempt the brave, and speculative enough to make everyone pretend they have a plan. That’s where some of the best trades begin, and where plenty of expensive mistakes are born.
For bulls, the argument is that the worst of the collapse may already be priced in and that the chart is starting to show signs of life. For skeptics, the argument is simpler: a token that has lost more than 90% of its value has earned suspicion before it earns trust.
The next few levels will decide whether this is a real reversal or just another trap dressed up as conviction. For now, Kaspa has at least done one useful thing: it has moved from “dead” to “worth watching.” In crypto, that’s not nothing.
