XRP is hovering around $1 while whale deposits to Binance have dropped to their weakest average since 2021. That eases immediate sell pressure, but it does not magically create demand, and right now, demand is still the missing piece.
- CryptoQuant says XRP whale inflows to Binance hit a three-month average of about $61 million
- Less exchange depositing can mean less immediate sell pressure, not a guaranteed reversal
- XRP still looks technically fragile, with $1 acting as the key battleground
- A rebound needs buyers to reclaim resistance, not just sellers to take a breather
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost said XRP whale inflows to Binance have fallen to about $61 million on a three-month average, the lowest reading since 2021. Binance matters here because it remains one of crypto’s deepest liquidity pools, so large deposits there are closely watched as a proxy for potential sell-side supply.
The logic is simple. When big holders move tokens onto an exchange, they may be preparing to sell, hedge, or reposition. When those deposits slow down, fewer tokens are immediately sitting on the shelf. That is constructive for XRP. It is also not the same thing as fresh buying. A market can stop bleeding because sellers get tired, not because buyers suddenly get enthusiastic.
Darkfost put it plainly: “Reduced exchange deposits usually mean fewer tokens are immediately available for sale.” He also warned that “lower selling activity alone cannot confirm a bullish reversal.” That is the part the hopium crowd tends to skip while refreshing charts like they’re staring at a microwave.
According to the CryptoQuant data cited by Darkfost, the slowdown in whale inflows also fits a broader market-wide decline in exchange inflows and trading volume, with selling pressure fading before demand has fully recovered. In other words: less supply pressure, but no real proof of a new bid yet.
XRP holds $1, but barely
XRP has been bouncing above and below $1 since Aug. 11, which is exactly the kind of price action that grinds traders into dust. The latest dip reached about $0.988 before recovering near $1.01, leaving the token stuck right on a psychologically loaded level that can act as both support and resistance depending on who’s winning the fight.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading near $1.00, down roughly 3.2% over the past week. Its market capitalization was around $62.8 billion, with daily trading volume near $900 million. That’s plenty of size, but size alone doesn’t mean strength. A giant market can still drift like a shopping cart with one bad wheel.
If XRP loses the near-term floor at $0.9866, the next downside area to watch is around $0.95. On the flip side, a recovery would first need to reclaim $1.045, the daily Bollinger Band middle line. That level matters because the middle band often acts like a crude dividing line between short-term weakness and a more stable footing.
What the indicators are saying
The daily chart still leans bearish, or at least stubbornly weak. The Bollinger Bands show the 20-day middle line at $1.0446, the lower band at $0.9866, and the upper band at $1.1025. Bollinger Bands are a volatility tool that helps show whether price is stretched or compressed. Trading below the middle line usually points to short-term weakness.
XRP’s RSI, or Relative Strength Index, sits at 36.02, with the signal average at 39.21. RSI is a momentum gauge that helps show whether price is overextended. A reading below 30 is often treated as oversold. At 36.02, XRP is weak, but not in the kind of deep oversold condition that usually screams for a violent bounce.
The MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, is also not giving bulls much to cheer about. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD line stands at minus 0.0054, the signal line at minus 0.0060, and the histogram at 0.0006. That suggests the downside momentum may be cooling a bit, but the broader trend still looks soft.
Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, is at minus 0.09. CMF blends price and volume to estimate whether money is flowing in or out. A negative reading means sellers still have the upper hand. Translation: buyers have not exactly kicked the door down.
The falling wedge setup, if it actually breaks
On the 4-hour chart, XRP is described as forming a falling wedge after the July 21 high near $1.165. A falling wedge is a chart pattern where price trends lower inside converging lines. Traders watch it because it can sometimes break upward and reverse the trend.
Sometimes. Not always. Plenty of wedges just sit there and ruin everyone’s day.
The first nearby barrier is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around $1.024. Fibonacci retracement levels are commonly used to map possible support and resistance zones during a pullback. If XRP can clear that first hurdle, the next upside levels are $1.055, $1.076, $1.097, and $1.123. After that, the July high around $1.165 becomes the real test.
A move through $1.024 would be the first technical sign that XRP is trying to break out of the month-long decline. Until then, the wedge is just a pattern on a screen. Useful, yes, but still only a setup.
Where liquidations could pull price
CoinGlass liquidation data adds another layer. A liquidation heatmap shows where leveraged positions are clustered, which can matter because those zones often act like magnets when price starts moving. If shorts are crowded above market, a squeeze can push price upward into them. If longs are crowded below, a drop can trigger forced selling.
Nearest liquidity sits around $1.01, with larger pockets between $1.02 and $1.03. The strongest overhead concentrations are near $1.03 and $1.045 to $1.05. Below the market, liquidity appears around $0.98 to $0.99, with an immediate downside boundary at $0.986.
That does not mean price is destined to hit those levels. Liquidation heatmaps are not crystal balls. They are more like a map of where traders may get punished if the move goes the wrong way, which, to be fair, is one of crypto’s favorite hobbies.
What matters most from here
The cleanest read is this: supply pressure is easing, but demand has not confirmed a real recovery.
That distinction matters. Lower whale inflows to Binance can reduce immediate selling pressure, which is constructive. But XRP still needs actual buying to reclaim resistance and turn short-term momentum around. Without that, reduced deposits may just mean the downtrend is taking a breather, not ending.
The market is therefore stuck in a familiar crypto limbo: one data point looks better, the broader structure still looks weak, and everyone is pretending the next candle will settle the whole argument. It won’t.
Key questions and takeaways
-
Is whale selling pressure easing?
Yes. CryptoQuant says XRP whale inflows to Binance have fallen to about $61 million on a three-month average, the lowest since 2021. -
Does lower exchange inflow mean XRP is bullish?
No. Lower deposits can reduce immediate sell pressure, but Darkfost said that alone cannot confirm a bullish reversal. -
Why does the $1 level matter?
It is a psychological battleground. Holding above it helps stabilize sentiment, while losing $0.986 could expose $0.95. -
What would be the first sign of a rebound?
XRP would need to reclaim $1.024 and then $1.045, which would show the market is starting to regain traction. -
Is the technical picture healthy?
Not yet. RSI, MACD, and CMF all point to weak momentum and lingering seller control, even if the pace of selling pressure may be cooling.
“Reduced exchange deposits usually mean fewer tokens are immediately available for sale.”, Darkfost, CryptoQuant contributor
“Lower selling activity alone cannot confirm a bullish reversal.”, Darkfost, CryptoQuant contributor
This content is for educational purposes only and does not represent investment advice.
Further reading
A few related reads that add more context around XRP liquidity, exchange flows, and the wider market backdrop.
