AMBCrypto reports that Bitcoin exchange reserves fell to around 2.68 million BTC, citing a CryptoQuant chart. The report does not give the reading’s date or the data needed to verify its “three-year low” claim.
- AMBCrypto says reserves topped 3 million BTC in early 2025.
- The cited figure has no stated date or underlying data.
- Reserve estimates depend on which wallets a provider identifies as exchange-controlled.
- Lower reserves do not, on their own, prove a supply squeeze or predict a price rise.
What the 2.68 million BTC figure shows
AMBCrypto says Bitcoin reserves at exchanges fell to around 2.68 million BTC, from more than 3 million BTC in early 2025. It attributes the chart to CryptoQuant. The report provides no precise dates or values for either point, so the size and pace of the decline cannot be checked from the information given.
The headline calls the level a three-year low, but the available information does not support that comparison. The report includes no dated series showing reserve estimates over the past three years. Without that series and a clear date for the 2.68 million BTC reading, the claim remains unverified.
Exchange reserves estimate the Bitcoin held in wallets identified as belonging to exchanges. They are not a category recorded directly on Bitcoin’s ledger. Providers have to identify exchange-controlled addresses, and differences in their coverage and labeling methods can affect the totals. The figure is best understood as a provider’s estimate, not a definitive count of all the Bitcoin an exchange or its customers could sell. This introduction to on-chain metrics offers more context on how such estimates are interpreted.
Exchange reserves are not order-book liquidity
A drop in estimated exchange balances may offer clues about potential market liquidity, but it does not directly measure the Bitcoin available on exchange order books, customer balances, or likely selling. Some exchange-controlled wallets may hold coins in cold storage rather than use them for immediate trading.
Coins may move from exchanges to self-custody, custodians, or other wallets, then return later. Wallet-management activity or changes to address labels can also affect reported balances. The reported decline does not show which explanation applies, or prove that an equivalent amount of Bitcoin has permanently left the market.
Metric labels matter, too. Glassnode’s “Number of Transfers from Exchanges” metric counts transfers from addresses it labels as exchanges. It does not measure the total BTC held at exchanges. Transfer counts, BTC volumes, net flows, and reserve estimates answer different questions. They are not interchangeable evidence.
A possible bullish signal, not a price forecast
One bullish interpretation is that holders are moving Bitcoin off exchanges instead of preparing to sell. If demand later rises while exchange-held balances remain lower, the amount of inventory readily visible on exchanges could be affected.
But reserve estimates alone cannot explain why coins moved or show whether demand will increase. Bitcoin held outside tracked exchange wallets can still be sold or sent back to an exchange. A lower estimate does not guarantee a supply squeeze or a higher price.
AMBCrypto also cites a Glassnode seven-day moving average funding rate of -0.004% to -0.005%, calling it the most negative since 2023. Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures markets. Negative funding generally means short-position holders pay long-position holders, though the exact mechanics and rates vary by market.
That reading is a separate derivatives signal, not confirmation of the reserve figure. Negative funding alone does not show how large or crowded short positions are. A short squeeze can happen if rising prices force short sellers to close positions, adding buying pressure. But funding alone cannot show that one is likely.
Key questions about Bitcoin exchange reserves
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What does the 2.68 million BTC figure represent?
It is AMBCrypto’s reported estimate, based on a CryptoQuant chart, of BTC in wallets labeled as exchange-controlled. It is not a count recorded directly on Bitcoin’s ledger, and the report gives no observation date.
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Is 2.68 million BTC confirmed as a three-year low?
No. The report does not provide the dated comparison series needed to verify that claim.
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Does a fall in reserves mean those coins cannot be sold?
No. Coins outside tracked exchange wallets may still be sold or moved back to exchanges. Reserve estimates do not capture all potential sell-side supply.
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Can lower reserves predict a Bitcoin price rise?
Not on their own. Reserve estimates provide context about exchange-held balances, but they do not establish future demand, a supply squeeze, or price direction.
The reported 2.68 million BTC level may be worth watching, but confirming a three-year low requires a dated CryptoQuant reading and a comparable historical series. Until then, treat the number as a reported estimate, not proof of an imminent supply shock.
