Bitcoin’s old M2 playbook is breaking down. Global money supply keeps rising, but BTC is lagging as spot ETF flows, institutional positioning, and tokenized yield assets take over more of the price action.
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Gold analyst Kevin Smith is making a brutal macro call: $20,000 an ounce in about four years if money supply keeps expanding, stocks tumble, and stress keeps piling up. It’s a tail-risk thesis, not a consensus forecast — but the backdrop for gold is getting harder to ignore.
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Bitcoin is facing a mixed macro setup: global M2 is still huge, but short-term liquidity growth has cooled. Even so, BTC valuation looks neutral, long-term holders aren’t dumping, and spot ETF inflows are still providing a real bid.
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